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News & Fight Reports

Thursday, May 24, 2012

FightMetric ran 10,000 computer simulations of Junior dos Santos vs. Frank Mir and the results were…


FightMetric is proud to introduce the most advanced MMA simulation engine ever developed.

The MATUA model harnesses the power of FightMetric’s deep database of statistics to simulate a match based on the two fighters’ past statistical performance. The simulation is run 10,000 times to reduce random chance and then produces the number of simulations in which each fighter won, by what method, and in which round.

The resulting MATch Up Analysis, or MATUA, while not a true prognostication tool, produces a statistical view of upcoming fights that may see things that our eyes do not.

The MATUA model was created by FightMetric Fellow John Candido. It is built upon a statistical analysis of every UFC fight of the modern era to determine which characteristics of MMA are most predictive of winners, method of victory, and duration of fight. You can read more of John’s analysis at ESPN Insider and follow him on Twitter: @johncandido.

So how did MATUA see dos Santos vs. Mir playing out?


Method of Victory

Round of Stoppage

KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Total Wins
1
2
3
4
5
dos Santos
45%
6%
15%
66%
32%
18%
11%
 8%
 6%
Mir
9%
14%
11%
34%
25%
14%
11%
 7%
 5%


No surprise that dos Santos by KO/TKO is the most frequent simulation result. Also note that submission results can also include submissions to strikes. But while Cigano wins nearly two-thirds of simulated fights, MATUA has Mir winning a greater percentage of the time than the current odds are giving him credit for.

Stay tuned for more MATUA results for the biggest fights in MMA.
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