FightMetric is proud to introduce the most advanced MMA
simulation engine ever developed.
The MATUA model harnesses the power of FightMetric’s deep
database of statistics to simulate a match based on the two fighters’ past
statistical performance. The simulation is run 10,000 times to reduce random
chance and then produces the number of simulations in which each fighter won,
by what method, and in which round.
The resulting
MATch
Up
Analysis,
or MATUA, while not a true prognostication tool, produces a statistical view of
upcoming fights that may see things that our eyes do not.
The MATUA model was created by FightMetric Fellow John
Candido. It is built upon a statistical analysis of every UFC fight of the modern era to determine which characteristics of MMA are most predictive of winners,
method of victory, and duration of fight. You can read more of John’s analysis at ESPN
Insider and follow him on Twitter:
@johncandido.
So how did MATUA see dos Santos vs. Mir playing out?
|
|
Method
of Victory
|
|
Round
of Stoppage
|
|
|
KO/TKO
|
Submission
|
Decision
|
Total
Wins
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
|
dos
Santos
|
45%
|
6%
|
15%
|
66%
|
32%
|
18%
|
11%
|
8%
|
6%
|
|
Mir
|
9%
|
14%
|
11%
|
34%
|
25%
|
14%
|
11%
|
7%
|
5%
|
No surprise that dos Santos by KO/TKO is the most frequent simulation result. Also note that submission results can also include submissions to strikes. But while Cigano wins nearly two-thirds of simulated fights, MATUA has Mir winning a greater percentage of the time than the current odds are giving him credit for.
Stay tuned for more MATUA results for the biggest fights in MMA.
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